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飛機製造商研發一款新機型相當不容易，需要投入大量的資金、時間和人力。除了技術上的難題外，還面臨著許多商業風險。以下針對開發成本、市場預測及銷售交付三大面向進行探討。
高昂的開發成本
開發新款商用客機的成本極高，投資預算都是數十億美元起跳。成本超支可能讓開發成本達到 200-300億美元，甚至多過整家公司的市值。
波音在1952年花費1.86億美元開發首架噴射客機707，較當時公司市值多出3600萬美元；波音在1960年代末花費了12至20億美元開發空中巨無霸客機747 (以2023年美元計算約為100至200億美元)，當時公司估值為3.75億美元。換句話說，波音當時的市值還不到747開發成本的三分之一。延伸閱讀：《知識》波音747 - 人們心中永遠的空中「巨無霸」客機
波音後來開發波音777的成本估計介於120億至140億美元，而當時波音公司價值約為300億美元。換言之，每次開發新款機型都是押注公司的未來。雷曼兄弟董事總經理George Ball就在1982年曾經形容「美國飛機製造公司所面臨的財務風險規模是空前絕後」。
有別於其它產業研發可以將開發成本分攤到數以百萬計的產品上；商用飛機每年總產量僅約1,000架，難以達到同樣的規模經濟效應及成本效益。
航空市場的預測
飛機製造商研發新機型時，需要對未來市場進行準確的預測。如果市場需求不如預期，將導致飛機銷售不佳，甚至出現虧損。空中巴士A380就是一個例子。
A380開發項目預算高達107億美元，等於當時一半的公司市值。空中巴士原本預計航空旅行的持續增長將創造出對大型飛機的需求，乘客會在大型樞紐機場之間往返 (Hub-to-Hub)； 但事實上，航空運輸趨勢最後是偏向使用中型飛機的直飛航班 (Point-to-Point )。最終A380只售出了251架飛機，遠遠低於實現盈虧平衡所需的銷售數目，結果只好停產。延伸閱讀：《精選》空中巴士A380客機停止生產
即使市場預測準確，如果專案延遲，可能會導致訂單遺失、航空公司缺乏信心，並最終將客戶推向競爭對手的懷抱。 波音原本計劃在2008年推出787，但延後到2011年，促使客戶購買與其競爭的對手空中巴士的飛機。
銷售與交付的挑戰
對於飛機製造商來說，失去訂單可能是一個巨大的挫折。因為航空公司總體客戶數量較少，若能成功售出飛機意味著，未來對該航空公司可以有更多機會銷售更多 (溝通效率提高、機隊的共通性等)。飛機製造商都非常清楚一個事實：銷售太少會讓公司陷入危險處境。
訂單太多亦會引起問題，上世紀飛機製造商道格拉斯飛機公司(Douglas)因DC-9窄體民航客機意外地受市場歡迎，但公司無法如期交貨，被迫向受影響的航空公司支付賠償，並幾乎因現金流問題被迫破產，導致後來被與McDonnell合併成麥道公司。
即使飛機製造商受命運之神祝福，機型大賣並順利交付收錢，但回報是微薄的利潤：從1970年到2010年，波音作為最成功的商用飛機製造商之一，平均年利潤僅略高於5%。
這也是為什麼飛機製造商不會經常開發新的機型，更偏好開發一款現有型號的延伸機型，例如增加更高效的引擎、調整機翼形狀，或是拉長機身等修改；對航空公司而言亦是好事，因為無需重新培訓機師來駕駛新飛機。
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The challenges of developing a new aircraft model for aircraft manufacturers
It is extremely difficult for aircraft manufacturers to develop a new aircraft model, which requires a huge amount of resources. In addition to technical challenges, there are also many commercial risks. The following discusses three major areas: development cost, market forecast, and sales and delivery.High development costs
The cost of developing a new commercial aircraft is extremely high, with investment budgets starting at billions of dollars. Cost overruns can push development costs to $200-300 billion, even exceeding the market value of the entire company.
The cost of developing a new commercial aircraft is extremely high, with investment budgets starting at billions of dollars. Cost overruns can push development costs to $200-300 billion, even exceeding the market value of the entire company.
In 1952, Boeing spent $186 million to develop the first jet airliner, the 707, which was $36 million more than the company's market value at the time. In the late 1960s, Boeing spent $12-20 billion to develop the jumbo jet 747 (about $100-200 billion in 2023 dollars), when the company was valued at $375 million. In other words, Boeing's market value at the time was less than a third of the development cost of the 747.
The cost of Boeing's later development of the 777 was estimated to be between $12 billion and $14 billion, while Boeing was worth about $300 billion at the time. When a company develops a new aircraft model, it is essentially making a bet on its future. George Ball, managing director of Lehman Brothers, described in 1982 the "unprecedented scale of the financial risks faced by US aircraft manufacturers."
Unlike other industries where development costs can be spread over millions of products, commercial aircraft have a total annual production of only about 1,000 units, making it difficult to achieve the same economies of scale and cost-effectiveness.
Forecasting the aviation market
When developing new aircraft models, aircraft manufacturers need to accurately forecast the future market. If market demand is not as expected, it will lead to poor aircraft sales and even losses. The Airbus A380 is an example.
When developing new aircraft models, aircraft manufacturers need to accurately forecast the future market. If market demand is not as expected, it will lead to poor aircraft sales and even losses. The Airbus A380 is an example.
The A380 development program had a budget of up to $107 billion, which was half of the company's market value at the time. Airbus originally expected that the continued growth of air travel would create a demand for large aircraft, and passengers would travel between large hub airports (Hub-to-Hub). However, in fact, the air transport trend eventually favored direct flights using medium-sized aircraft (Point-To-Point). In the end, only 251 A380 aircraft were sold, far below the number of sales needed to break even, and the project was eventually discontinued.
Even if the market forecast is accurate, if the project is delayed, it may lead to lost orders, lack of confidence from airlines, and eventually push customers to the arms of competitors. Boeing originally planned to launch the 787 in 2008, but it was delayed until 2011, prompting customers to buy aircraft from its competitor Airbus.
For aircraft manufacturers, losing an order can be a huge setback. Because the overall number of airline customers is small, successfully selling an aircraft means that there will be more opportunities to sell more to the airline in the future (improved communication efficiency, commonality of fleet, etc.). Aircraft manufacturers are well aware of the fact that selling too little will put the company in danger.
Too many orders can also cause problems. In the last century, aircraft manufacturer Douglas Aircraft Company was unable to deliver the DC-9 narrow-body airliner on time due to its unexpected market popularity. It was forced to pay compensation to the affected airlines and almost went bankrupt due to cash flow problems, leading to its later merger with McDonnell to form McDonnell Douglas.
Even if an aircraft manufacturer is blessed by fate, the model sells well and is delivered and paid for smoothly, the return is a small profit: from 1970 to 2010, Boeing, as one of the most successful commercial aircraft manufacturers, had an average annual profit margin of only slightly over 5%.
Even if an aircraft manufacturer is blessed by fate, the model sells well and is delivered and paid for smoothly, the return is a small profit: from 1970 to 2010, Boeing, as one of the most successful commercial aircraft manufacturers, had an average annual profit margin of only slightly over 5%.
This is why aircraft manufacturers do not often develop new models but prefer to develop derivatives of existing models, such as adding more efficient engines, adjusting the wing shape, or lengthening the fuselage. This is also good for airlines, as they do not need to retrain pilots to fly new aircraft.
